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CAMARILLO, Calif. -- The January 8 U.S. average regular-grade gasoline price is up 14.04 cents per gallon in the past three weeks, to $2.7468, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey of approximately 5,000 U.S. gas stations. That price is nearly 96 cents above the year-ago price, and it is higher than at any point last year. The last time the price was higher was October 24, 2008.

During the same three weeks, crude rose more than $9 per barrel, or 22-cents-per-gallon equivalent. So where did the 8 cents—that gasoline didn't rise but crude did—go? It went to losses for refiners and retailers, unable to pass through their entire buying price hikes.

The glut of gasoline and other petroleum products continues despite shutting in about one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity, thanks to the poor economy and still-rising unemployment.

The upstream is looking pretty good, thanks to investor money fleeing to crude oil to escape potential negative effects of monetary policy. The downstream, joined by hard-pressed consumers—not so much. This is proof positive that crude oil prices, and therefore gasoline prices, can rise significantly despite no big comeback by demand.

More world refining capacity is being idled, in extensions of repair projects or by conversion to warehousing extra product. The light at the end of the recessionary tunnel is not visible.

After eking out a good gasoline margin year in 2009, retailers are starting out 2010 with a scant 8.66 cents per gallon margin. Refiners are mothballing more and more, but still suffer narrow gasoline margins. Upstreamers, meanwhile, can celebrate the impact of money-printing politics on prices for their oil, for now.